[proell]

I think this is not quite as easy a call as many of us might think. Now, even if I were at 33% to win the hand, this particular scenario is a fold IMO.

Here's how I see the ICM numbers...

FoldEV = 17.8%

Call & Win = 32.3%
Call & Lose = 10.5%

So, if they are pushing 40% then we are roughly 67/33:

.323 * .33 = .10659
.105 * .67 = .07035

In this situation our Call$EV = ~.177, or 17.7%

So this hints that folding is superior to calling.

I think the real question here is the range of hands that we can put UTG on. I feel like the majority of players at the 22's are not pushing 60%+ hands here, which is pretty much what I would need to put them on in order to call.

Obviously any reads would greatly affect what range you could put them on, but let's assume we are pushbotting 12-tables and have none.

Who says UTG pushes more than 50% here, and who says less?
I'm really curious what your experiences are on this.