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Old 06-05-2005, 06:21 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw CALLING OUT THE PRE-FLOP FOLDERS

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Maybe I've been lucky, I don't know, but I've been lucky for 40,000 hands so far.

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Then you've played about 4000 small blinds. Lets assume a generous global 10% average PFR, giving you a chance to make 400 cool-completes (Note that this is also ignoring blind-steal situations). Assuming you call half of them, that's a sample size of 200 hands that you're using to determine whether or not it's profitable to CC from the SB. Do you think this is statistically significant?

If you want to examine the situation where you're coldcalling an UTG raise (which I think is important here), it becomes more like 15 hands.

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Remember, every time you fold a blind you've lost money.

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Every time you post a blind, you've lost money. Every time you fold, the expectation is 0 EV. Every time you call a hand that you shouldn't, the expecation is -EV.

I think I'm done with this thread. I've made my case, and there's not much else I can add to the subject. You're welcome to take or leave everyone's opinions here.
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