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Old 11-28-2005, 11:12 AM
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Default Re: Confused with Aces and Queens, 2 hands PP .5/1

Hand 1: Over how many hands is MP2's stats? If it's over a relatively small number of hands, it's somewhat difficult to narrow his hand range. If his PFR is really around 3, then he could easily have limped with TT-77. It's also possible that he has A8s-A7s (not spades if A8s) or 87s (also not spades), although it's difficult to determine which of these hands MP2 would limp from that position without knowing how accurate 17/3 is to his true range. As for the turn donk, I think there are two likely possibilities...

a)If you've been trying to make a lot of free card plays with overs, I can see MP2 raising the flop with A8-A7 in attempt to thin the field, then calling the 3bet, and donking a blank turn. When you just call MP2's turn bet, he's probably thinking that you have two overcards, no pocket pair. Hence, when another low card falls on the river, he assumes you haven't improved and bets out once again. A similar line of reasoning would also follow if he had TT or 99, or...

b)He's flopped two pair with 87 or hit a set. He raises on the flop because the pot is already big. But if this is the case, why would he just call the 3bet? If he had two pair or a set, I would think that he would either cap the flop or check-raise the turn after calling the 3bet. That's why I think two pair or a set is less likely, although possible if MP2 is the type of player who knows what hands he's supposed to play preflop but has no idea how to play postflop. There are a lot of players like that, so I certainly don't dismiss the idea.

With all that said, I think QQ is ahead more often than not. I would raise the turn. If he calls and checks on the river, bet again. If he reraises on the turn, I probably call down. Although I would be very worried at that point, I think QQ is good enough times to call down in a fairly large pot.

Hand 2: An AF of .6 isn't especially low considering his high VPIP, although it's still passive. Without seeing how villain has played other hands, it's hard to say exactly what I would do after the turn raise. Without a read, I would probably reraise. If he calls, I bet the river. If he caps, I reevaluate, but I'd find it hard to fold against a donk who plays such a wide range of hands.

I think the way you played the turn and river is a decent alternative, as it induces villain to bet with a worse hand; however, I'm fairly confident he's paying you off against the aggressive play even if he's beat. He could easily have Qx or any pocket pair. Although his AF doesn't suggest aggression, players with 59% VPIP can play hands very strangely--strangely enough for me not to fold AA with a decent sized pot.
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