[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm mulling over this hand, and I see very few possible hole card combinations that a thinking TAG might have played this way against you: AA, AQ, AJs (I think I'm stretching a bit here), 88, and 22. I throw in the last two pocket pairs because there was already 1 cold caller when he acted preflop, and the blinds had yet to act behind him.

At any rate, those hands all share a common characteristic: they beat you handily. I think if Button was on a smaller PP that did not flop a set, he would likely have raised the flop or at least turn rather than calling both (and if he was on a hand like JJ which he might think is the best PP, he would likely have 3-bet preflop).

The question becomes, how do you play it after villain opts to call the turn rather than make the expected raise? I don't think you made a terrible mistake by check/folding the river--I seriously doubt that a good, thinking TAG is still in the hand with a holding you beat on this river, and certainly not 13% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, this is kind of a tough one, eh?

I find it hard to put villain on a hand here other than an Ace. Even so, he hasn't really played his hand accordingly (i.e. probably would have raised the turn).

I also think 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK may be possible holdings. (Again, though, why didn't he 3-bet preflop?)

The thing is, we can't commit strongly to any of these possiblities. Therefore, there remains the chance that our Hero is in the lead. For my reasons stated in my above two responses, I believe betting the river (folding to a raise) is the best play.

Adam