[TStoneMBD]

in response to the 23o dilemna:

lets call the investment you have to make to call preflop X

you need 2:1 to see a flop based on hot and cold preflop equity against a random hand.

because youre getting 5:1 the equity in X is 250%. however, if youre folding every time he raises which i would, your equity when he raises is -100%. even if he raised 67% of the time out of position calling would still be correct based on hot and cold equity. .67(-100%) +.33(250%) = +15.5%. meaning the equity you gain on X is 1.155X

this makes it look like calling is the right play.

this doesnt factor in implied odds however. even though youre in position i think your implied odds with 23o are reverse. its hard to quantify the equity in your implied odds because its theoretical.

i havent read the hand history so i dont have an estimation for how often villain will raise preflop out of position after youve completed, but lets just say its 33%.

he raises 33% of the time meaning that your equity in investing X is .33(-100) + .67(250) +134.5% or 1.345X.

.345X is equivalent to 1/3 of a 1/3 SB, (.11SB). your reverse implied odds in this situation would have to beat greater than .11SB in order for calling to be incorrect.

i would venture to guess that your reverse implied odds are more than -.11SB, if not by a wide margin.

someone may be much better at quantifying the implied odds of this situation then i can however.