Thread: Flush odds
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Old 06-07-2005, 10:12 AM
Zag Zag is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 515
Default Re: Flush odds

I wonder why the earlier poster is so unlucky... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, it is a good question. There are a few things [I started with "two" but kept thinking of more] to think about that differ from limit play.

1. As you guessed, implied odds become more important. Since the flop bet you are going to be calling is usually much bigger relative to the pot, and even more so for the turn bet, you have to count on winning a lot more if you hit. On the other hand, the implied odds might be there with just a single opponent, which is often not the case in limit. However, he has to be someone who makes loose calls.

2. The correlary to 1 is that you need position. It if very hard to pick up those implied odds without it. With flush draws, especially, you can't count on the check-raise if you hit, because you will probably just get a check behind.

3. It is way more painful to hit and lose in PL/NL than it is in limit, so you really want to be drawing to the nuts unless you can put your opponent on a hand with some accuracy. If you have position, again, this helps a lot. If your opponent is good, you know that he isn't drawing to a flush out of position (though he might be semi-bluffing one). On the other hand, if he is good, he likely won't pay you off it you hit it.

4. Oftentimes OE straights are better to draw to than flushes. This is because, first, they are usually better hidden -- with a board of 6h 9c Qh, a turn of 5d will not seem scary to AQ, especially because he was worried about a heart falling. The second reason is that, if your opponent has put you on a draw, often you can bluff the flush when it gets there. This means you have, effectively, 15 outs rather than just 8 (your 8 straight cards plus 7 more flush cards). But this means that you have to be able to count on opponent laying down his hand to an "obvious" flush -- which says you possibly didn't have the implied odds in the first place. Of course, you had better be darn sure he doesn't have the flush himself.

Anyway, there are more, but that's it for now.
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