Thread: Bad AK Call?
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Old 09-21-2005, 02:01 PM
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Default Re: Bad AK Call?

You are only getting 1.3 to 1 pot odds. I could see the big stack pushing your early raise with 3 possible ranges.

The tightest range would be AA, KK, QQ or JJ. If these are the only hands he would push over the top with, then your EV of your call is -5694 chips.

If we add in AK to this range, because AK is going to be in his hand 1/3rd of the time and we can assume a chop if that is the case (19k chips each), then your call becomes positive EV: 2528 chips.

If you have a read that villain would also push over the top with AQ, the EV of your call skyrockets to 8173 chips.

Without a specific read on the big stack raiser, I would say 25% of the time he has the tightest range for reraises, 50% of the time he has the middle range, and 25% of the time he has the loosest range. Given these assumptions, the EV of your call against a typical big stack reraiser is about 1884.

I think you have an edge here, but it's very slight. Whether to call or raise would seem to depend on whether you think folding will allow you to find a bigger edge in the future. Of course, if you have the slightest inkling that the big stack could be coming over the top of you with air, a call is mandatory.
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