[mojobluesman]

I'm not sure which is correct in the theoretical world, but I can tell you which is correct in the real world because I've probably been gambling for longer than most of you are alive.

If getting to 30K is really important, then go for the quadruple immediately. Otherwise, after winning the first bet in a double up, the decision on whether or not to continue will be agonizing and a loss will put you on a 3 week drinking bender. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

If the 30K is not really that important, then go for the double up because the probability of winning is higher and it will give you a chance to re-evaluate your feelings and priorities after you are ahead the 10K.