Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
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And the denominator gets pretty big, too. Let's say you went 100 PPs without flopping a set. The next 1,000,000 times you have a PP you flop a set 117,551 times, exactly the number you would expect with a true deck and random shuffles. Now your total is 117,551 flopped sets out of 1,000,100 PPs. You never made up the dry 100 PP streak, but your end results are damn close to the expected outcome (like 1/1000th of a percentile off).
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This is what I was implying in later posts...sorry if that was presented poorly. I certainly understand now why you were lead to believe otherwise after re-reading my posts.
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I defer to Jason on matters of probability. Your posts in this thread led an impartial reader more towards a view that you harbored a fundamental misunderstanding of probability than that you harbored an inability to communicate clearly your views.
But that should be no big deal. We all make mistakes; none of us knows everything; when you make a mistake here you get corrected -- and YOU win because you've learned something new. Don't let the fact that you misunderstood or miscommunicated keep you from speaking out or arguing for your view of things -- you are generally either confirmed in your view of things (with great detail on why your view is correct) and thus learn something valuable, or you gain greater insight into an issue . . . in which case you learn something valuable. Either way, you win.
Welcome to the forums!
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