Re: a hand i misclicked and may like
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dont you think his likelihood of having an ace is reduced by the turn check on a super raggedy board.
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people seem to be missing that. i'm pretty sure this guy is betting his ace highs on the turn. an actual read beyond just the stats would be helpful, because he really could be capable of checking behind planning on calling the river, but i don't expect it.
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I check this turn with an ace on a somewhat regular basis at 10/20. There are many players who will smooth call this flop and c/r the turn knowing that an A-high will likely have to fold, and I really would like to get to showdown on such a ragged board, even at the sacrifice of giving a free card to a 5-outer. If he's a smart player (which is hard to represent with just the stats, but certainly seems more likely for a 30/15ish type), then I think his turn check can mean a majority of hands including an A that wants to go to showdown.
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