Re: Sidebets so far
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I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet.
Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet.
In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P.
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I'm curious how exactly did you calculate this? With all the loopbacks, I wouldn't know how to begin to calculate this ev. My version went "I've made one ministep 5 and the other times I've tilted after busting down to ministep 1, I don't think adanthar will tilt like I do, and probably is better than I am. Oh yeah, I also played a ministep 1 w/ $6 and made it to step two." It should be interesting, adanthar keep us updated.
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You can do it with straight algebra but its not fun. It's more to just pick the finish distribution percentages and let the computer brute-force-simulate a whole bunch of em. I have a program that does some stuff that I'm currently converting to an applet to put on the web. Will post the link once I find time to go through with it.
Noah, I'm curious exactly what you did though. Shoot me a PM.
Everett
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