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Just out of curiosity eric, how often, if he "gives up some small edges early", do you think he will bust (6-10 place) in step 1, and how often do you think he will win (to advance to step 2)?

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Difficult to say without more research. I did log on to play a few of these to try out a theory. I played 6 tourneys just to get a feel for them (I'm not willing to play enough to get a decent sample size) and by checking the "post and fold" until 6 left, I never finished 7-10 and finished 6th once. I had an average stack of around 450-500 when 7th place busted. I didn't win any, but I did put myself in chip position (1400+ chips) to compete for 1st place three times.

Without more research I'd estimate a strong player would win somewhere between 1/10 to 1/12 after folding all hands till final 6 players while busting out very rarely (maybe 1/50). That player would finish 6th some of the time (say 1/6) but three 6th places only counts for one bust since 6th pays $4 which could be used for 2/3 of an entry.

I'm not motivated enough right now to do the math to see what all that means, but I have no doubt this would result in a grossly low hourly earnings but hourly rate is not what is in question here.

I assume you have done quite a bit of research on this in order to accept this bet and I'd love to see your estimates after the challenge is over. I'm sure Adanthar has done his own research too. That is what makes it very interesting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]