Thread: true count
View Single Post
  #2  
Old 12-23-2005, 11:13 AM
cardcounter0 cardcounter0 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,370
Default Re: true count

Let's take your +5 count scenario after 1 deck dealt of a 6 deck shoe. That means there is 260 cards left with 5 extra high cards. Normally there are 100 high cards per 5 decks, this particular 5 deck chunk of cards has 105 high cards in it. What can we assume about the specific location of these five extra cards? Nothing.

Simulate a 5 deck shoe. Throw 160 black marbles in a bottle, and 100 white marbles in a bottle. The black marbles will represent a low or neutral card, and the black marbles a high card.

Start drawing out marbles. In the long run you will notice about 5 black marbles being drawn per 13 draws.

Now simulate a +5 count. Throw 155 black marbles in a bottle and 105 white marbles. Now in the long run you will notice about 5.25 marbles being drawn per 13 draws.

Can you say anything about when this extra .25 black marble will occur? The very next series of 13 draws, after 26 marbles have been drawn? 50 draws later? The next draw? No. You only know that in the long run, you should get 1 extra black marble than you normally would every 52 draws (some series of 52 draws no extra, some series of 52 draws 2 or 3 extra, etc., but in the long run, it evens out to 1 black marble extra per 52 draws).

The same with a randomly shuffled 5 deck shoe of cards with a +5 count. When will the high card come? Who knows? Some series of 52 dealt cards will have 2 or 3 extra high cards, some will have none. All you can assume is that *1* extra high card will appear per 52 dealt cards in the long run (a +1 true count).
Reply With Quote