[Chris Callahan]

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But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand.

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I'm sure you're good enough to realise that "thinking he has the best hand" is not enough. You put your opponent on a hand range. 50% this, 30% this, and 20% this. Not "yeah, I think I'm winning here."

So why can't hero call the turn thinking he's ahead 25%, but fold the river thinking he's ahead 5%?

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I understand what your talking about, honestly I do. I just don't see it possible that vs a player he knows nothing about that a 2nd bet tips the scales that much.

lf

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On the turn the opponent (if he plays reasonable well) will mix his strategy so that you get a borderline call with a bluff catcher. On the river he must cut down on the bluffing frequency so that you get another tough decision. If he knew that you would never fold the river he would simply never bluff, and your call with KJ would win 0% of the time. Hence you must sometimes call the turn and fold the river.

This is simple bluffing theory.