[peterchi]

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Your equation is nice and all, but Metereon put it best:

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I really think it just simplifies the whole problem to think of it that way. Your hand is just so good it's not even funny here.

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Not saying that you're wrong, but I'm not yet convinced.

Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.

I agree that it is most likely that UTG is full of [censored]. But 90%+, I don't know. And what do we do if 3-bet? I can't fold so basically then we are losing 3 bets.

I think the question for me is, do we win 4 bets often enough to overcome the times that we lose 3? Maybe so, but I'm still pondering. Either way, I don't think this is as obvious as you say. I may come around though, don't give up on me yet.