Thread: turn spot
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Old 12-15-2005, 11:31 PM
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Default Re: turn spot

I think this is a rather straightfoward cap. See it like thisroughly) if X is the chance that you are currently ahead then 1-X is the chance that you are currently behind.

Then our equity at the turn is (let's ignore his outs against us for a while), lets say we have roughly 10 discounted outs. Then our equity is about: X + (1-X)*0,2 = 0,8*X + 0,2, i.e. if X <u>&gt;</u> 37,5% then we should 3-bet (roughly).

This criterion is easily met. I think it is strong enough that overturning principles (i.e. he might fold to a 3-bet but call a river bet or whatever) will not influence our decision.
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