Re: Win rate at showdown too high
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Well, the other half is checking and folding when a scare card hits. So you have KQ and are heads up on a Q high board. The river brings an A - you check, your opponent bets and you fold. Say there are 6 big bets in the pot after he bets. He doesn't have an A 85% of the time. So when you bet this river and get called or raised, you probably lose 2/3 of the time, but its +EV even though it drives your win at showdown rate down.
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Bingo. I am very guilty of this.
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