[baronzeus]

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That does not change my EV calculation because I assumed you put in no more bets on the river when behind.

But, intuitively, don't you see putting in extra bets while 75% likely to be a 2-out dog must be wrong?

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yes, i do. but we are seeing a showdown. and id rather put in bets on the turn when i have at least 2 outs than on the river when i am drawing dead.

so the question is, is that last bet coming in on the turn or the river? i think putting it in on the turn is far better, especially because we can bet the river if we spike a 5


Also your calculations are weird because we are putting in 2bets regardless of whether we cap or call (we are calling the river because he is betting the river)