Re: 4HANDED. PARTY20. 57TP .
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i think you'll see an overpair at least 75% of the time after he 3bets it but I think a cap is standard.
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This makes absolutely no sense. You think that 75% of the time you're drawing to 2 outs yet it's standard to put in 2 more BB's? The pot is 9BB, and the 25% of the time he doesn't have an overpair he likely has 10 outs. So the EV of capping, assuming we can magically fold to the river bet when he has an overpair or when he improves, is:
(.75)((.077)(11BB) + (.923)(-2BB)) + (.25)((.227)(-2BB) + (.772)(10BB)) = +1.07BB
Compare to calling, given the same assumption of perfect river play:
(.75)((.077)(10BB) + (.923)(-1BB)) + (.25)((.227)(-1BB) + (.772)(9BB)) = +1.53BB
Equals a .46BB mistake. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
IMO this hand's correctness is a function of flawless's table image.
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