Re: Almost FT, A7o
The ICM is definitely flawed. It often says to fold when you should push, but not in this kind of context. Right here, when you have no FE and are up against a hand at least *slightly* better than two cards (he's still probably folding 32o, etc.), you're around a 55% favorite, give or take a couple. That's an edge very close to all of the ones you easily throw away on the bubble of an SNG.
Furthermore, everybody else, both at your table and at the final table, are aware of the payout structure and almost always play too tight. Even the shortest stacks will be able to steal, as long as the other guy's stack takes a big hit if he loses the hand; resteals when you sense weakness are huge, too (I will often push with something like a QT or a 97s the minute the big stack minraises instead of pushes). If anything, rather than being weak/tight, most people here underestimate how much patience and selective aggression work for you at an FT.
For the record, of the last six FT's I've made, I've got 3 1'sts, 2 2'nds, and a 3'rd. Some of that is running hot, but just passing on spots like these (and then pushing that same A7 to a minraise) is enough to move up to a much bigger payout.
|