I struggle here with theory.

We basically have three players in a race for two spots, with you having a slight advantage because of stack. That means, theoretically, you have about a 70% chance of making the money at this point.

I think the BB's range is probably pretty huge here, no? If he calls, we are in a coin flip at best and at worst a huge dog to bigger pairs. I guess this is where ICM comes in? I finally just purchased SNGPT yesterday, so maybe I'll start to get a better understanding of things as I start to plug these type of hands into the calculator.