Re: I like poker.
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let's say the aggressor can only have 66, 44, or QTs only suited since I don't think this hand is a strong possibility.
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Don't forget that the agressor has basically a random hand (he posted/checked UTG). Q4 is more likely than QT. Not that that really affects your analysis all that much. Anyway, I agree that the cap is close to break even, but I put it on the plus side. My rough estimate was I'm good about 10% of the time and have something like 11 or 12 outs the rest.
When the T fell on the turn my immediate goal was to get it capped 4 ways. I guess the question is how much does UTG's 3-bet reduce the chance I'm currently ahead. I guess that's where my plan breaks down a little.
/mc
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