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Old 11-21-2005, 05:29 PM
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Default Re: SnG theory question

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds are 100/200 no ante

Player 1 has 1000 and is UTG
Player 2 has 1000 and is UTG +1
Player 3 has 7500 and is SB.
Player 4 has 4000 and is BB.

Players 1 and 2 fold. Player 3 moves in with A3d and player 4 knows he has this hand. Is it pos EV for player 4 to call with KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, this is the first I've heard of ICM, so even though this may be a trivial problem, I'd like someone to confirm that I'm thinking about this correctly:

Assuming 50/30/20 payout structure,
Assuming the chip values are before blinds were posted,
Using http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html because it comes up first in google [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Folding gives:
player 3: t7700, 40% EV
player 4: t3800, 31% EV
Call+win gives:
player 3: t3700, 31% EV
player 4: t8000, 40% EV
Call+lose gives:
player 4: 0% EV.

KK(non-diamond) vs A3d wins 67% of the time so, the EV for calling is:
0.67 * .40 + 0.33 * 0 = .27

So, since this is less than the .31 EV folding gives us, we conclude that calling is -EV.

Is that basically how ICM is applied?

And what about player 3... what if this were played face up. If player 3 knows that its -EV for player 4 to call, is it +EV to move all-in? I guess it depends if player 3 knows that player 4 knows its -EV to call...
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