An approximate method for determining the favorite
Sklansky's second paragraph should be enough to give careful readers a hint that 7632 is the favorite. The error in the "common sense" reasoning is the swift conclusion that 5432 is the favorite.
To recap, the reasoning is as follows: there are three cases where 7632 almost always loses: (a) catching a 7 (b) catching a 6 (c) catching the same card as 5432.
There are three cases where 5432 almost always loses: (A) catching a 5 (B) catching a 4 (C) catching a 6
Intuitively, (a) and (A) should roughly cancel, as (b) and (B). But (c) and (C) are not similar events.
The chance of catching a 6 is 3/44, while the chance of getting the same card is about (28/44)x(3/44), since this event is only likely/relevant if the card is one of AKQJT98.
Thus, (C) is more likely than (c) so 5432 should be an underdog.
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