[sweetjazz]

You'd get an even better payoff if you assume that you can live a life of hedonism and pure selfishness and that there is a divine being who will reward such behavior with eternal bliss.

The reality is that you don't have an EV problem because you have offered no reasonable way to estimate the probability of either of your possible scenarios of being actually true.

I think that thinking about God in EV terms is a pretty bad way to go about it, and I have to question how seriously Pascal took his wager (and how much it was just a tongue-in-cheek reply to critics). Of course, it would be more forgivable of an error on his part, as the theory of probability was just being formulated in a devleloped manner around that time.