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Old 12-08-2005, 08:31 PM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Frog and Peach Pub, Downtown SLO
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Default Re: KK against stuited flop...did i play it right?

You can generate all kinds of ideas about why we should or should not bet, but all of the replies have totally missed the mark here. There is just one consideration:

Bet if the pot is pretty big and check if it isn't.

If he has a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], we want him to fold if the pot is pretty big. Likewise we don't really mind if the pot is small. He is not going to fold a flush often enough to effect our decision to bet, so don't even make the assumption that he will. If the pot were 20 BB, we would benefit greatly (+ 2 BB) from him folding a hand that has 10 outs to a chop. If the pot is 4 BB, we only gain .4 BB when he folds a hand that is drawing to a chop, so betting isn't as critical.

Everytime he check/raises, it costs us about .7 BB. By checking, we give up ~.775 BB if he wasn't planning on calling and we give up ~.8 BB if he was planning on calling. So in this case, he has to check/raise about as often as he has a worse hand. I think he will have a worse hand more often the 50% of the time so I like a bet. As the pot gets bigger, he has to have a hand that will c/r more and more, and that is why betting becomes so critical as the pot gets big.
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