[BasketballNYC]

This is a situation where saying that "the chance he has a flush draw is 8%" is not accurate. Not because of the math but because quite simply the betting line made it a STRONG possibility. If it were a vacuum with no betting then the math stands alone, but it is not. What are the odds he has one of the remaining 3 Aces? Are they the actual hand distribution odds of an A being dealt? Of course not. He opened raised, that increases the odds he has an A. He pushed in where an A was the nuts and he had to be afraid that his opponent who had him covered had one as well.

Back to the actual question, this is a really tough spot. I think caution may be the better part of valor here. In a cash game you would call, but in a tournament, with his read, I think he is not chopping it a small percentage of the time. There is some money in there but the risk vs. reward is so high.