Thread: Downswings
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Old 11-04-2005, 05:57 AM
tshort tshort is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 237
Default Re: Downswings

Does this answer your question?


Variance and Downswings

A small FAQ on variance. In short, variance is great, and stinks, all at the same time. Whatever your most recent downswing is, it’s very likely that another 2+2er has had worse. We commiserate, I promise. But we usually don’t want to hear about it.

To answer the other standard question: What is a really long out of the money streak for a winning player? The math is pretty easy to figure out what the chances of any given run are with a given ITM, but any random number in the teens is the standard stinky run number.

You have posted here 55 times, so I'm assuming you've read this.

[Edit]I read one of your first posts titled "Distributions" where you were flamed about sample size and reading the FAQ.

Do you have any evidence you're a winning poker player? That would be a pre-req to figuring out if it is variance or if you are a break-even/losing player.
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