[SossMan]

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HAND ASSUMPTIONS

UTG+1 (tsoprano) is raising with any Ace, any pair, any 2 broadway. That's tighter than it should be at this stage but according to TTIU he's playing particularly tight. This represents 298 of the possible 1,326 hands (taking into account the fact that our hero has AK).

UTG+2 is re-raising with AA-88, AK-AQ. Again, if UTG+1 was playing more aggressively than this should be a greater range .

If our hero folds, UTG+1 is getting 2 to 1 odds and will call with AA-77, AK-AT, KQ-KT, QJ. This range is about 1.5 to 1 against AA-88, AK-AQ making the call pretty favorable. This is a total of 139 hands so UTG+1 will call in this situation 47% of the time.

If our hero calls, UTG+1 will only call if he has AA-KK. There are only 6 possible combinations for him to have AA-KK so he would only call in this situation 2% of the time.

PRIZE MONEY

I don't have the actual numbers from this tourney but we can use the numbers from tonight's event as an approximation. All players are guaranteed 10th place money of $412. They are playing for the remaining pool of $31,562. Once the next person is eliminated all remaining players are guaranteed $772 ($360 more than they are guaranteed now) and are playing for an additional pool of $28,322.

CHIPS IN PLAY

Again, I don't have the actual numbers and this could make a slight difference but I don't think it will be too significant. Tonight there are 6,596,000 total chips in play. Tonight's prize pool is almost identical to the tournament we're looking at so I'm comfortable using this number.

IF HERO FOLDS

His Stack: 1,016,946 (15.4% of total chips)

UTG+1 Calls 47% of the time. He will win 40% of the time. If UTG+1 wins, UTG+2 is eliminated. All players are now guaranteed 9th place money. Our hero's equity is .154*28,322+360=$4,722. If UTG+1 loses, our hero's equity is .154*31,562=$4,861. The total equity for our hero if UTG+1 calls is $4,805 (4722*.40 + 4861*.60).

UTG+1 Folds 53% of the time. Our hero's equity is $4,861 (it makes no difference if UTG+1 calls and loses or just folds, only whether or not UTG+2 is still in the game).

The total equity of folding is $4,835 (4805*.47 + 4861*.53).

IF HERO CALLS

UTG+1 will fold 98% of the time. Hero will win against UTG+2 50% of the time. If Hero wins, UTG+2 is eliminated and the Hero wins 851,726 and has a stack of 1,958,672 (29.7%). If Hero loses, his stack is reduced to 474,220 (7.2%).

Hero's equity if he wins is .297*28,322 + 360 = $8,772. Hero's equity if he loses is .072*31,562 = $2,272. Total equity when Hero calls and UTG+1 folds is $5,522 (8772*.5 + 2272*.5).

For the 2% of the time that UTG+1 has AA-KK, I'm going to ignore since it 2AM. But I did want to crunch these numbers since it's a good example.

In summary:

$EV of Folding = $4,835
$EV of Calling = $5,522

Calling is clearly superior to folding based on the assumptions above.

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Very nice work.