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Old 08-23-2005, 03:00 AM
Eeegah Eeegah is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Raising 99 and flopping quads
Posts: 609
Default Re: Call river with 44 (on board), Ace Kicker v. strength in 9.75 BB p

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Flop - You miss the flop and the board is fairly coordinated, I'm not sure an autobet does anything good here. You have nothing to protect as you haven't made your hand, and you can't bet for value as you're probably behind. HU I would bet for sure, against two players, I would say it's marginal. When raised on the flop I'd put CO on a FD, OESD or TP.

Turn, since CO bets he probably had TP on the flop. If he were on a draw he would have checked behind. I would say you have 6 pretty clean outs to call the turn, which should be enough.
On the river, I would probably call, but I'm damn sure that we are behind here. The reason to call is not only that there is a small chance that we are the best, but also to avoid people taking shots at us later in the session.

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A couple points here:

1) Don't forget MP3. We have no idea why he's in the hand at this point: He may have any of the things mentioned above, he might be slowplaying a set (or even quads now), or he might be waiting to fold his puny 77. Just because we know what he did now doesn't mean we can ignore his motives in the hand. He's the reason I'm discounting our Spade outs, moreso than CO. As for the CO, if he does have TP then there's a very good chance we're reverse dominated depending on what his CC standards are (mine are strictly AQs, AJs and KQs), devaluing our Ace (and to a far lesser extent our King) outs. I think our situation here is borderline at best.

2) Unless our preflop raises gather no respect whatsoever, I seriously doubt that CO is behaving this strongly with A high. We ain't good here one time in ten, sorry. As for image, if someone folds overcards in the face of that much aggression my first thought isn't "huh what a weak-tightie." Even if someone tries to start taking shots at me I say bring it on, as I'll happily 3-bet his ass on the river later on with the best hand [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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