[lorinda]

My question is whether 200 is the right size -- is it enough to move them off junk?

I took the view that he wouldn't want to become the 4th highest stack, so my answer is yes.

In response to Jason's points, I'm confident that if I can keep in touch with the button stack-wise that I'm going to beat him, so I'm looking for low downside +CEV to increase my $EV.

I'm certainly not claiming that your way is wrong, I wouldn't have bothered posting if I was going to say that.

My argument however is that I'm willing to give this pot up if the guy is brave enough to as much as call here.
I believe my move is +CEV, that's the most important feature to me here.
I don't think it's a much lower EV than the preflop push, but it is a much lower SD.

The way I'm playing this pot doesn't alter my chances of winning the endgame much, but still gains me some chips in the long run.
The other way seems to be too much risk for the gain involved.
I believe you are correct that pushing preflop gains more chips on average, but I'm not convinced it gains more dollars.

The reason I'm posting again so soon is to steer the discussion along these lines, because I think it's a fascinating position (I like scenarios that are not necessarily the correct cash game play but might be in tourney play... they teach us the most)

One thing that is important is that the opponents are deemed to be lacking surprise value, I consider this inherent in the $11 games and believe that once you have a player pegged as "does this, doesn't do that" that the player will remain that way until either the end of the game, or at least until the last three places.

The player is looking for a hand to double through with, but he's also fighting for the bubble.
I don't believe he's going to call many chips away, but he might well raise.

Anyway, I'll see what everyone else thinks for a few hours [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Lori