[Cry Me A River]

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there's not much money to be made so not as much incentive to multi-table and whatnot.


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I've been playing some head's up SNG's lately (not nearly enough to come to anything but anecdotal conclusions) and I've been trying to decide if they're worth it or not. I'm going to throw out some observations...

- Profitability: The biggest problem is that Head's Up (on Stars anyway) seems to really top out at the $50 level. You don't see a lot of games going higher than that. So like a lot of non-NL Hold'em games, there's a definate ceiling as far as buy-in levels. In addition, multi-tabling them would be difficult. I'd expect a multi-tabler would be able to play, at most, half his usual tables. ie: a 4-tabler would probably be looking at 2-tables to start with. So it'd be difficult to get the kind of hourly rate as would be found at $200 full table SNG's.

OTOH, tournaments are usually much, much shorter. Virtually all my tournaments have been done by level 4, and often sooner (I've won one tournament on the first hand)

A 70% win-rate translates to a 33% ROI which is pretty solid, particularly if you can average 30 mins a tourney. Which makes this a viable option for low-mid buyin players.

- Variance: I keep going back and forth on whether variance should be better or worse... A string of Head's Up 1sts won't have the huge positive effect on your bankroll that a string of 10-player 1sts will have while a string of OTM's will drop you almost as much. However, it should be pretty rare to loose 5 Head's Up matches in a row (let alone 10 or more) unless you're playing above your skill level. So it's probably a toss-up with Head's Up play rewarding consistant play because a big win won't make up for the mistakes that cost you the last couple tournaments.

Given that it should be a lot less likely for you to drop a bunch of buy-ins, you probably don't need as big a bankroll as for 10-player SNG's.

- Skill: I've yet to have a Head's Up tourney turn into a Party-style all-in fest, and the only times I've had to start pushing is when I've been <T1000. I think the blind structure greatly favours the better player and I'd venture to say win rates of 70%+ are very sustainable, however, table selection (which is difficult given how quickly tournaments start) would be key. I've played $5's, $10's and $20's (I normally play $10 and $20 10-player SNGs depending on bankroll/confidence) and if anything Head's Up tourney's may be more formulaic. About 80% of players are too tight, never raise pf except with monsters and can be bullied, particularly pf. The other 20% are LAGs who can be trapped if you're patient. In addition, there aren't so many chips in play so you're never that far behind (No T200 vs T5000 situations) or that far ahead and with the typical weak play, comebacks are always possible (I've come back to win from T60 after a Level 1 all-in disaster)

I also think that due to the perceptions on profitability, there are very few sharks playing head's up tournaments regularly which makes them potentially even more profitable, particularly if sharks can keep out of each others way through table selection.

- Psychology: I find it a lot easier to maintain my concentarions playing Head's Up torney's, particularly since depending on the Villain you may be involved in better than 60% of hands.

The big downside is that specialising in Head's Up tournaments is going to help your overall poker game even less than regular SNGs. Or is it? I don't think it's going to help your Limit/NL ring game much, but, it may help your middle and late MTT and SNG game, where the table tightens up as the blinds raise, stealing becomes common and pots are often head's up (of course it'll help you anything you wind up heads up in an MTT or SNG) particularly in MTTs where post-flop play in these situations can be key...