Re: Turn CR wiffs, River decision?
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My reason for betting into the PF raiser is that I want him to raise and have BB fold. BB could have AJ, AQ, KQ, KJs and have odds (or nearly) to call one bet, but would be wrong to call two. This could clean up my QJ against a possible AK PF raiser...
Comments?
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I think the times that:
1) BB has a better queen,
2) he didn't reraise pf,
3) he folds it for two but not one, and
4) you hit a queen on a later street
are thin enough not to justify the cost of betting into him.
Plus we're giving up a "sweet" check-raise if we hit our more likely straight outs. I'm sure there's some math for this, but between the flop value-deficeit and missed c/r BB it seems like you're paying about 1/3 to 1/2 of a SB to try and push him off and I don't think that these four conditions will coincide 1 in every 15 times.
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