Re: Quick question.
if we accept whatever range you want us to, to allow for you to be slightly ahead, the river does indeed pose an interesting situation.
you've got TONS of options here as i see it, and all of them have their merits, and unfortunately i won't be able to go in to great detail right now, but i wanted to help get some push going here.
hero's got like 700-750 left on the river with a 1080 pot.
hero thinks he's slightly ahead.
villain checks to the hero
hero can check
hero can push
hero can bet a small value bet
hero can bet a small value bet hoping to induce a checkraise
hero can make a bet about 1/2 his stack that would leave all checkraises to all in
after the checkraise, the problem i see with just calling is that well, you're saying you think he's behind your range, and well, he's only going to have to call 300 more in to a pot of 2300 or so on your final push. combine that with the fact that if you're trying to preserve your remaining stack, and i don't see the value really in leaving these last 300 behind. i mean, what's the fear, that he's going to fold to your push 3 bet? that shouldn't be a fear.
personally i like 1 of 3 options here:
check behind (if you really think you're only *slightly* ahead of his range, not getting the rest of your stack tied up here is a viable way to go).
push (you've got 700 and the pot is already 1080 and you think you're ahead)
bet about 150 (i like this as a route to getting him to checkraise you so you can get it all in. whether or not you actually want to get it all in is a different question, but i'm working within your framework here).
i think that i tend to go betweeen options 1 and 2 here far more frequently, particularly at lower stakes games, than option 3. so looking at options 1 and 2, i'd say that it would very much depend on how close i thought i was to my opponent's range. also, if i thought i had any folding equity at all (incredibly not likely here) it'd be in my consideration.
my point is mostly that if the analysis of how close you actually think you are is close enough that you're very likely behind depending on your guestimation, i'm more likely to check. the more donkish and the farther ahead of my opponent my guestimation could have me, the more likely i am to push (or add a smaller valuebet to the mix).
hope that's of any value ot all.
c
|