[SumZero]

I push this. With an M under 5 you have to go, and you still do have FE as a lot of players don't adjust to the antes and will be afraid of your 8 to 9 BB raise (and if BB calls and loses he has roughly the same number of chips as you, this isn't an autocall situation for him).

Fold: 34500
Push, no call: 43300
Push, BB call and win (if non-BB player calls you'll be slightly better off chip wise): 74200
Push, lose: 0.

I think most often you will win the pot w/ no call. I think if you get called, more often than not it will be with high cards and you will be a slight favorite. I'd expect something like:

no call: 60%
call where you are slight favorite: 25% (so you'll win about 13.5% of the time in this situation and lose 11.5%)
call where you are dominated: 15% (so you'll win about 3% of the time in this situation and lose 12%)

So in my book EV(34500) < .6*EV(43300) + (.135+.03)*EV(74200).

Chip values aren't linear, but if they were the LHS is 34500 while the RHS is 38223. So is a certain amount worth passing up an expected amount 10% more? Especially considering you are about to hit the BB and lose another 4400 in chips on the next hand?