Re: Chase the low draw?
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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Gergery,
What kind of assumptions are you making about other hands that are staying in? Any Ten will stay in the hand, and if it's not an ATxx hand, he's still got as many as 9 outs to have you drawing dead for hi. There may even be a hand with 2 diamonds in it, sticking around for some other draw and have you drawing dead to the diamonds.
I just don't see that the backdoor hi possibilities help in any way with this paired/2 flush flop. I think the analysis should really only be confined to the backdoor low draw.
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I was assuming no value for high, since i think that will be good <2% of the time. and you see no flop/turn raise and get quartered ~20% of time and its ~EV neutral. give or take.
-g
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