View Single Post
  #33  
Old 12-07-2005, 02:55 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't possibly be serious about folding here.

First, you do have more than four outs. It's not many, but you can make a straight or the nut flush with what you have. There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here.

Second, if you're folding two overcards on the flop every time you're bet into getting 11-1, people will take shots at you all night long. I don't want to cultivate that kind of predictable image. This is small stakes still, where you'll get people betting out with all sorts of hands.

Raising is probably the best play. Merely calling is not a bad play. Folding is bad, not just because you might have the best hand (unlikely) or best draw (possible), but because you're screaming to the rest of the field: I AM WEAK-TIGHT!

[/ QUOTE ]
You are misanalyzing the situation here. The hero indeed only has 4 pure outs here, 3 pure outs for his overs, and 1 pure out for his backdoor flush. There is a reason why I am ignoring the backdoor straight out, since it would be runner runner gutshot, this should be counted as .5 pure outs, however given the heros poor relative postion in this hand(meaning if the hero does turn a gutshot draw, it could very easily get raised behind him on the turn) the backdoor straight should be discounted to 0 pure outs.

I'll move on to your next statement. "There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here" In multiway pots, there are actually many times when you will drawing dead with AK. All it takes is for someone to have A4, and another guy to have KT, and poof, the hero is drawing dead, or someone to have two pair or a set.

Also, generally speaking there are many times you should call with just overcards getting 11-1, but NOT IN THIS SITUATION. There are 3 people to act after the hero, the hero's relative position in the hand is horrible, the odds of a raising coming behind the hero are too significant to ignore. This factor lowers the hero's true odds to the point where the hero should fold. If you think the hero is getting 11-1 in this hand you are being naive.

Raising is the worst play here becuz all the hero has is a weak draw with horrible relative position, this is not a time to put more money in the pot. Calling is -EV becuz of all the reasons ive stated, but I will admit that if the hero always made these -EV calls he wont be losing much, but -EV is still -EV. Folding is the best play.

About "screaming weak tight" I dont think the hero should care about what others think of him, his job is to make the best decisions possible, and folding is the best decision.

To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.
Reply With Quote