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Old 03-28-2005, 08:27 AM
einbert einbert is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: in sklansky i trust
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Default Re: Party .5/1: JTs in MP1

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I agree with folding and unless I am reading it wrong, he is getting only 6.5:1. That is not enough.

tom

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The flop call is fine.

He has 1.5 outs for his BDFD and 1.5 outs for his BDSD.
I'd say about 4 outs for his overcards, for a total of 7 outs.

By my estimate he only needs 5.7-1 for this call to be break even, so there is almost a full SB of overlay there. I think it would be a bad fold.

And this is estimating that someone has a four or has you reverse dominated more than a third of the time, which I think is fair.

EDIT: But he's getting 8.5-1 because of the bettor's bet and someone that has already called. Accounting for other overcallers and possible raises behind us, I guess the effective odds on this round are something like 7.5-1 or so. Still so much overlay that folding is a fairly large mistake.
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