Re: Party .5/1: JTs in MP1
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I agree with folding and unless I am reading it wrong, he is getting only 6.5:1. That is not enough.
tom
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The flop call is fine.
He has 1.5 outs for his BDFD and 1.5 outs for his BDSD.
I'd say about 4 outs for his overcards, for a total of 7 outs.
By my estimate he only needs 5.7-1 for this call to be break even, so there is almost a full SB of overlay there. I think it would be a bad fold.
And this is estimating that someone has a four or has you reverse dominated more than a third of the time, which I think is fair.
EDIT: But he's getting 8.5-1 because of the bettor's bet and someone that has already called. Accounting for other overcallers and possible raises behind us, I guess the effective odds on this round are something like 7.5-1 or so. Still so much overlay that folding is a fairly large mistake.
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