Re: 5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river
If the river hadn't been another 4, I might throw in another raise. As is, given that he woke up on the turn 4, the only thing he could be playing this way that you're beating is a weaker flush. My guess is there's a 60-65% chance you're ahead right now - let's assume 60% for simplicity. Presumably he will only call your raise if he's behind you. If he's ahead, he might only call with a K-high flush, and he will probably three-bet an A-high flush, a full house, or quads. Let's assume there's a 10% chance of a K-high flush.
Then calling has an expectation of -.4 BBs (ignoring what's already in the pot - you're obviously not folding).
Raising has an expectation of .6 - .3*2 -.1*1= -.1.
So it would seem that if these percentages are reasonable, raising is best, even if he'll never 3-bet a worse hand.
Do my calculations seem weird here? They do to me.
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