If there is a strategy, or a philosophy, that has had no drawdowns over the last 10 years, it is almost impossible to run a computer across the chart and not catch some piece of it. It's like a pyramid with a thousand tips, no matter where you start digging, eventually you'll uncover the whole thing.


Whereas if a strategy has even one large drawdown, that effectively pollutes the entire neighboring region. You uncover any sub-piece that includes that section, it will be magnified by the probing, hit-or-miss nature of experimentation. As a result, you'll start working in a different direction.


What this means is that the recent whipsaw in the bond will send charthounds off on the wrong scent for years to come - until it stops happening.


leroy