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Old 08-14-2005, 12:15 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: BB Flush Draw - My First Winning Hand

Welcome to the forums.

Flop: You have at least 11 outs here (9 diamonds + 2 deuces). That means by the river you'll have about a 42% chance of having the best hand by the river.

You'll likely have 4 or 5 people in with you on the flop if you cap it, so you're only putting in 20-25% of the money on the flop with a 42% chance of winning. So you're making money with every bet that goes in on the flop, so you should not only call it but also cap it. In almost every case, you should never fold a 2-card flush draw before the river unless there's a double-paired/tripped up board.

Turn is good; we've only got like a 20% chance of beind best by the river now. But us calling one more bet in a 12BB pot is like an 8% investment to make a 20% return. So we can call for value.

River definitely needs more aggression. I'd say you have the best hand over 90% of the time here. I'd bet out if I thought villain was going to wuss out and check behind, or I'd check-raise if Villain was aggressive.
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