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Old 08-14-2005, 12:14 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 365
Default Re: BB Flush Draw - My First Winning Hand

On the flop you're about 35% for your four-flush to turn into a flush by the river, so as long as 3 people are in the pot with you you're making money, since you're 35% to make your hand but only putting in 25% of the money. You can reduce the 35% a little since you're not drawing to the ace-high flush, but two-card flush over two-card flush is pretty rare, so 30-32% is probably about right, and you're still ok with 3 other players.

Add to that that you've got outs to two-pair or better since you paired your 2 on the flop (and those outs don't interfere with your flush outs since the jack and deuce of diamonds are already out) and you've got 14 cards that make you a very strong hand.

Since there wasn't a preflop raise, I think betting this flop is your best bet, as you don't want it checking through. If (say) UTG+2 had raised preflop, or (say) UTG was a known maniac that would bet out any flop, you might check hoping somebody else would bet and you could check-raise, pumping the pot for your flush draw, but in this case I think betting out was the best course. (Note that if you checked and it wasn't bet until MP2 or CO you wouldn't want to raise because you wouldn't want to blow out the field.) I think it's fine to call when it's 2 back to you since you know you've got at least 3 players in the hand with you (MP1, MP2 and CO).

Turn check-call is perfect.

You need to raise this river. MP2 is betting top-pair good kicker, not a better flush. When the action gets to you there's only one player left to act, so getting an extra bet out of two players (MP2 and CO paying off your raise) is better than an extra bet out of one player (UTG+1 overcalling, which isn't guaranteed, anyway).

There, how's that? Now I need more coffee.
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