[marbles]

Interesting question, but virtually impossible to answer for the following reasons:
1. The data in the sample (12 total halves if you ignore the UMass game) is nowhere near statistically significant. 30 trials is commonly cited as a good ballpark minimum, so MAYBE you could get a reasonable number after 30 games, but not after 7.
2. You simply gloss over the statement "ignoring how good the other team's defense is." I assume, as a fan, you know just how ridiculous this is, particularly in college basketball. UNC-Asheville and Sacred Heart (116 and 117 PA by UConn) have no semblance of defense. UMass, meanwhile, has given up more than 80 only once this season, and that was to Indiana. The fact that all three teams are terrible does not make the comparison apples-to-apples.