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Old 06-14-2002, 03:38 PM
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Default Re: cant make big bucks in bonds? - wrong



How long will Canada or Australia, two supposed dollar dependent countries, keep appreciating? I think the slow drop of the dollar isn't going to last much longer. Its become en vogue to bash on the dollar and talk about its overvaluation, but my goodness do you really want to invest in countries that have virtually zero productivity growth and unemployment near 10%? How about a country that has had deflation for 2 years and whose weakening recovery has come solely because of their weak currency? When people come to grips with these factors, the outflow will stop and in a year just might reverse.


As for making money on bond funds, you must be kidding. Making money on currency exchange, not the value of the bonds, doesn't exactly cut it. Bond funds are going to underperform over some time I think, after all I don't see how they could match their recent past unless 30 year rates go to 3.5%...and in that case you might have to worry about the viability of the US government.
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