[kenberman]

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I suppose one could run a quick scenario analysis based on expected spreads and the corresponding moneylines. I'm too lazy to run the EV equations, but it could be interesting.

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ok Clark, I bit. I did 2 scenarios, based on some really rough guesswork on expected spreads, and the corresponding implied chance of victory for each team. I've never done this before, so critiques appreciated. This is going to be long, so go get a beer.

in scenario one (Pats as #4 seeds)

I made them a 4.5 to 6.5 favorite over Jax, which would make them winners 68% of the time. I then made them 8 to 9 point dogs at Indy. They would have a 21% chance of winning this game, but they only make it to Indy 68% of the time. So, they will advance to the championship game 14% of the time.

As to their final opponent, for simplicity sake (and probably not too far off from reality) I made Pitt/Cincy bascially 50/50, and Denver vs winner of Pitt/Cincy a pick em as well. So, the Pats would have a 50% chance of playing Denver, and a 25% chance of playing Pitt or Cincy. I made the Pats a 1-2 point dog at Denver (50% chance of winning), a 2.5 - 4 point favorite over Pitt (61% chance of winning), and a pick em at Cinci (50%). The weighted averages of these % of victories, when weighed against the % chance they actually play these teams (50%*50%)+(61%*25%)+(50%*25%) = 53%. But since there is only a 14% chance they play in this game, the Pats overall chance of making the SB is (53%*14%) = 8%

On to scenario 2: [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I have the Pats as small favs against the Steelers, and about 50/50 at the Broncos. So, a 31% chance of advancing to the AFC championship. I approximated that the Pats would have an 80% chance of facing the Colts, a 15% chance of facing the Cinci, and a 5% chance of facing the Jags. I estimated the Pats would beat the Colts 21% of the time, the Jags 68% of the time, and Cinci 61% of the time, leaving a weighted average of advancement % of 30%. 30% times the 31% chance that they make it to this game gives them a 9% chance (compared to 8% in scenario one).

so.....I give the slight edge to Scenario 2 (Pats #3), although it's very close, and it really depends on the assumptions you make.

feel free to critique, as I'm not sure this is all correct.