Folding AA. Can someone do an EV analysis?
Final table 6 handed NL Holdem. No ante, blinds are $200/400.
Stacks are as follows.
Small blind (ME); $4,700
Big blind $17,500
UTG $2,300
MP $7,000
Cutoff $12,300
Button $10,200
54,000 in play, 27 entrants at $300 (+10) each. Pays last 5 spots.
1st 40% $3,240
2nd 25% $2,025
3rd 15% $1,215
4th 12% $972
5th 8% $648
OK heres the action. UTG moves allin, MP calls, cutoff moves allin, Button calls, I fold my AA at this point after much deliberation. Big blind folds. MP moans and then folds (of course I am praying he calls and the button takes them all out).
Now this is probably a call, given that the winner of the pot will have a very good shot at first place, and that the button will not take them all out a large percentage of the time. I also know that if I lose I get 5th prize as long as UTG doesn't take down the main pot.
For the record and sake of analysis, UTG has A6s, Cutoff has JJ, Button has QQ.
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