[einbert]

Okay so we have all seen the dumb "would you call all in with AA on the first hand of the WSOP" posts, and the answer to that problem is pretty damn obvious considering the massive +chipEV it means, and considering that you are basically going to _have_ to experience some positive variance to make it deep. Yeah, very easy problem.

It got me thinking, though, about another "first hand" situation. I really hope this isn't obvious, but it doesn't seem ridiculously obvious to me (though I am definitely leaning in one direction).

Let's say it is the first hand of the WSOP, which has a field of 6000 players, approximately 10% of which will cash, and based on the button position you have to post the T50 BB.

UTG looks down at his cards and immediately goes all in. It's folded to you but UTG for some reason turns over his hand, and he holds A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. You look down at your hole cards and find 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Is this a call or a fold?

My first instinct is that this is a clear call, you have an equity edge (53-47), you are going to need to get lucky to go deep, and you have a chance to immediately cover every one of your opponents at the table.

I then started thinking about something I read here once, I believe David said it, that "it means less to double up when you have an extremely large or extremely small stack". Well in this case your stack is exactly par with every other stack, _however_ in terms of the chips you are going to need to eventually cash, an extra 10k means very little. That factor might have some bearing on this decision, although it might not be enough to offset the fairly large +chipEV situation you get into by calling.

Again, I really hope the answer to this isn't obvious but I would like to hear some of you guy's opinions and the theory behind what is correct, and even whether you would call if it were an absolute coin flip with no dead money (so a 50% shot to double your stack at this point, a neutral EV but extremely high variance move). I believe the correct answer might have something to do with how large or small the field is, how deep/long the structure is (if this were a six month long tournament that starts each player with 1M BBs and drudges on with a very long structure the answer to this question might depend more on different factors), or other factors. I really want to hear what factors you think contribute to this decision, how much they weigh, and what you think the correct decision is.

Again, sorry if the question is dumb or the answer is obvious. It's not to me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] (although ATM i am definitely leaning toward a call being correct).