[krishanleong]

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Let me know when you hit 410 BB.

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410bb?? Holy sheeit, I've never heard of a downswing so large.. In 260k hands, I think my worst is less than 200bb. If I was down 410bb, I would stop playing, stop thinking 'variance' and start examining hand histories and sessions and try to figure out what I was doing wrong. I'd say 100bb is small enough to call variance, 200bb is getting borderline. 300+, you're probably doing something wrong. According to the risk-of-ruin formula:

variance=SD^2, im using SD=16bb/100 and winrate=3bb/100

exp(-2*(win rate)*(bankroll)/variance)
exp(-2*3*410/256)
exp(-9.61)
6.7055e-5

which is about 1/15000. Are you that lucky?

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I don't know if I'm a 3 BB/100. Actually I'm pretty sure I'm not. Recalculate using 2 BB/100.

I've had a stretch of hands where the 95% confidence interval was 1.31 - 6.96 BB/100, and then a strech where it was -6.3 to 0.27 BB/100.

If you haven't had a 200 BB downswing, variance is a much nastier monster than you think it is.

FWIW I felt pretty good about my game over the 400 BB downswing which is enough for me not to move down.

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I would stop playing, stop thinking 'variance' and start examining hand histories and sessions

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I NEVER stop working on my game. Run good, run bad. Always work hard.

Krishan