Re: Suffering a 140BB downswing. Need help
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Let me know when you hit 410 BB.
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410bb?? Holy sheeit, I've never heard of a downswing so large.. In 260k hands, I think my worst is less than 200bb. If I was down 410bb, I would stop playing, stop thinking 'variance' and start examining hand histories and sessions and try to figure out what I was doing wrong. I'd say 100bb is small enough to call variance, 200bb is getting borderline. 300+, you're probably doing something wrong. According to the risk-of-ruin formula:
variance=SD^2, im using SD=16bb/100 and winrate=3bb/100
exp(-2*(win rate)*(bankroll)/variance)
exp(-2*3*410/256)
exp(-9.61)
6.7055e-5
which is about 1/15000. Are you that lucky?
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