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Old 12-20-2005, 01:43 PM
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Default Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn

Strange hand. Raise more PF. Also, do you think Villain has a read on you? Does he put you on AA after a flop minraise? Or is this common for you with lesser hands such as KQs and AQ, AK? He may be pushing the turn with JJ or QQ if he thinks that your minraise preflop could signify one of these hands. Keep that in mine. It's not always what you read on your opponent but what you think they read on you.

My instincts tell me you are ahead, though.

He doesn't have 68 or 8J. He wouldn't have club-club.

His flop call is weird. He may have TT or AT. I don't think he has 33, 77, or 99. And I can't put him on 2 pairs. (even if he did, you'd have 8 river outs for Aces up, or trip aces).

He COULD have 77 I suppose. But not 33 or 99. I'd put his range on: 77, TT, AT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. The pot is $45 on the turn and he has $77 left...would he really push here with TT or 77? It's possible b/c of the size of the pot and the club-club on board. Let's say yes. Would he push here with AT? Uhhhhh....if he's an idiot. We'll say maybe.
Would he push with JJ, QQ, KK, AA? Sure.

So I think he could have either of these hands. More than likely it's probably QQ or JJ.

There are 3 ways for him to have TT. There are 3 ways for him to have 77. There are 6 ways for him to have AT. There are 6 ways for him to have each of: JJ, QQ, KK. And 1 way for him to have AA.

That means there are 6 ways for him to be ahead.
There is 1 way for him to be equal (AA).
There are 24 ways for him to be behind.

If you call: Of the 6 ways he's ahead, you lose $100 = net loss $600
Of the 24 ways he's behind, you win $100 = net gain $2400.

So if you played the hand 30 times, you would be -$600 + $2400 = +$1800/30 = +$60.

So I'd say on average, you will win $60 on this hand by calling. Folding loses you about $23. Also, if he has a raggedy two pair, you are still about 16% to win on the river. (Any of the remaining 2 aces, or any of the two community cards to pair that are NOT his holding, for aces up).

I'd say call. Like I said, I think he likely holds QQ.
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